Florida Gators forward Alex Condon (21) drives to the basket as Connecticut Huskies center Tarris Reed Jr. (5) defends during the second half Sunday in the second round of the NCAA Tournament at Lenovo Center. [Bob Donnan-Imagn Images]

Three Things To Watch In Sweet 16 Of NCAA Tournament

Dalton Sallengs March 25, 2025 ACC, Basketball, Big 10, College Basketball, Feature Sports News, Gators Men's Basketball, Gators Sports, NCAA, NCAA Tournament, SEC, University of Florida 238 Views

The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament tips off Thursday with four games before four more Friday. While there are many storylines to follow, these three will be determining factors in who is moving on to the Elite Eight.

Florida’s Depth vs. Maryland’s Top Talent

It will be a battle of contrasting styles in the Sweet 16 game for the West Region. The No. 1 seed Florida Gators take on the No. 4 seed Maryland Terrapins in San Francisco. Maryland has been anchored all season by its starting five, nicknamed the “Crab Five”. Julian Reese, Derik Queen, Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel all average at least 28 minutes per game this season. In their round of 32 victory against Colorado State, the Terrapin starters all played more than 33 minutes. This is a sharp contrast to the Gators, who have seven players averaging more than 19 minutes and two more in double digits. This could impact the game in a couple different ways.

Foul Trouble

Maryland only averages 15.3 fouls per game as a team. It does a good job keeping its heavily relied upon starting lineup out of foul trouble. Florida will look to change that. One of the best ways to beat Maryland is by forcing it to go to its bench more than it wants to. Florida draws 17.4 fouls per game and drew 21 in its round of 32 victory against UConn. If Florida can get the Terrapins in foul trouble, it will lead them to playing out of lineups that do not spend as much time on the court together and give the Gators an advantage.

On the other side, Florida does foul more than it should, in part because it has the depth to withstand foul trouble. With the rotation of Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Micah Handlogten, the Gators have two skilled big men on the court at all times. This could be an issue against a Maryland team that wants to get to the free-throw line. The Terrapins shoot nearly 75% from the charity stripe and get more than 20 attempts per game. If the Gators allow Maryland to get into the bonus early in either half, they could find themselves playing from behind.

Pace of Play

Florida sits at second in the country in fast-break points at 16.5 per game. Maryland comes in at 46, scoring 12.8 per game. Both teams like to get out and run, especially after forcing a turnover. Both teams get more than 7.5 steals per game and look to turn them into runout baskets. While it may seem that both teams can play at a hectic pace, an up-tempo game may actually favor the Gators. The “Crab Five” is used to playing heavy minutes and running up and down the court, but keeping pace with the Florida big men, who are known for making a beeline to the paint when running a fast break, as well as the five guards the Gators put in that can all lead the break, is a different beast. For Maryland to have a chance in this game, it will need to run when it is on offense, but keep the Gators out of transition.

Game Time

Thursday at 7:39 p.m., on TBS/truTV

SEC vs. BIG 10 in the Sweet 16

The SEC leads the way with seven teams in the Sweet 16, while the Big Ten is in a tie for second with four teams. The Big Ten was perfect a perfect 8-0 in the first round, while the SEC still has half of its tournament record 14 teams alive in the title race. These two conferences have been setting the pace and are each looking to cut down the nets for the first time in a long time. They have faced off multiple times already in the tournament, with the SEC holding a 2-1 advantage behind victories by Tennessee and Kentucky. Michigan secured the one victory for the Big Ten. There are three matchups pitting the SEC against the Big Ten in the Sweet 16, including Florida vs. Maryland.

Michigan vs. Auburn

The No. 5 seed Michigan Wolverines have already beaten an SEC team in this tournament, as they beat No. 4 seed Texas A&M in the round of 32, but now have another test in front of them, the No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers. This pits the regular-season champions of the SEC against the winner of the Big Ten tournament. Michigan has the big men to match up with SEC size and athleticism, as both Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf have looked like elite players throughout the season. For Auburn, it will come down to if it can get Johni Broome going against this size.

Three-point shooting will also play a big factor in the outcome of this one. Auburn has shot 33% from 3 in the tournament, while Michigan has held its opponents to 24.5%. Auburn will need its shooters, namely Chad Baker-Mazara, Denver Jones and Tahaad Pettiford, to get it going from deep. Miles Kelly has also shown he can change a game with his shooting, hit seven 3s in the Tigers opening-round game against Alabama State. The Wolverines have the size to defend on the perimeter, with Tre Donaldson as their shortest backcourt player at 6-foot-2.

Game Time

Friday at 9:39 p.m., on CBS

Ole Miss vs. Michigan State

The other SEC vs. Big Ten matchup in the Sweet 16 pits the No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels against the No. 2 seed Michigan State Spartans. This game will pit two teams that love to get up and down. Both team attempt more than 59 shots per game. This will also make rebounding an emphasis and Michigan State has the edge there. It pulls in 40.1 rebounds per game, compared to 33.1 by Ole Miss. One other stylistic difference comes from the free-throw line. Michigan State is top 25 in the country in free-throw percentage, while Ole Miss is outside the top 120. A difference of this magnitude could play a big role down the stretch of the game.

Individual Impact

Sean Pedulla has led the Rebels in scoring in both of their tournament games. He scored 20 in each, but has received help as the Rebels have had at least three double digit scorers in each game. They will look for more consistency from Dre Davis and Malik Dia. Davis scored 15 on 6-9 shooting in their first-round victory against North Carolina, but was held to just four points as he fouled out of the second-round game against Iowa State. He averaged 10.3 points in the regular season. Dia only took four shots en route to eight points in the first round, but was able to get up 14 shots and 18 points in the second. Getting him involved more can help motivate his impact on the glass. Dia had three more rebounds against Iowa State than he had against North Carolina.

The Spartans have played in two very different games, putting up 87 points in their first-round win against Bryant, but only 71 in their victory against New Mexico in the second round. The biggest difference was 3-point shooting. The Spartans were held to just 26.7% against New Mexico. Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman each shot well, but were the only ones to make any. If Jace Richardson and Jaxon Kohler can get hot from deep, the Spartans will be hard to beat.

Game Time

Friday at 7:09 p.m., on CBS

Caleb Love and Arizona vs. Cooper Flagg and Duke

In the only game in the Sweet 16 that does not feature a SEC or Big Ten team, the No. 4 seed Arizona Wildcats take on the No 1. seed Duke Blue Devils. This game may have the most storylines running through it, both on an individual player and team wide basis.

Rematch

This is the one of two Sweet 16 games to be a rematch of a regular-season game. It is the only one that does not feature conference foes. Duke won the first meeting 69-55. It held Arizona to just 39.6% from the floor. Duke also had a big edge from 3, going 9-25, a 36% clip. Expect this rematch to be much higher scoring than the original. Both teams rank in the top 20 in points per game. These familiar foes may give the fans a shootout for a spot in the Elite Eight.

Caleb Love

For Caleb Love, this game is personal. This will be his 10th matchup with Duke in his five-year college career. He spent his first three seasons at North Carolina, and holds a 5-4 record against the Blue Devils. Love was surprisingly quiet in their regular-season game this year, being held to just eight points on 3-13 shooting. He has put up big numbers against the Blue Devils in the past, going for 25 points against them his freshman year and 28 in the Final Four as a sophomore. Averaging 17.6 points across his tournament games, Love has shown he can step up when the lights are brightest. His experience both in the tournament and against the Blue Devils will be key if the Wildcats want to pull off the upset.

Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg has already cemented himself as the likely first overall pick in the upcoming NBA draft, but still has something to prove in the NCAA Tournament. Following an ankle injury in the ACC Tournament, he has been held to “only” 16 points and eight rebounds per game in his two outings. These numbers are clearly great, but he will need to take it to the next level to lead the Blue Devils to a championship. Flagg is looking to be the latest freshman to take home most valuable player honors in the tournament. The last to do it was another Blue Devil, Tyus Jones, in 2015. Arizona has no answer for Flagg the last time these teams played, and a repeat performance by him will propel Duke to victory.

Game Time

Thursday at 9:39 p.m., on CBS

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