Scouting Florida’s Potential SEC Tournament Opponents

The Florida Gators men’s basketball team finished the regular season as the No. 2 two seed in the SEC, earning them a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. There are three different teams the Gators (27-4, 14-4 SEC) may face in their first game at 7 p.m. Friday.

The 15 seed LSU Tigers (14-17, 3-15), 10 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-11, 8-10) or seven seed Missouri Tigers (21-10, 10-8) all will look to get to the quarterfinals to take on the No. 4-ranked Gators.

LSU Tigers Tournament Outlook

There have not been many bright spots for the Tigers in SEC play. Their three wins put them only ahead of South Carolina and they are the second-lowest scoring team in conference play at just 67 points per game. When the offense has gotten going, they have been able to find success. Their three highest scoring games in conference play were their three wins. LSU is a perfect 9-0 when it scores 80 points or more. Cam Carter averaged 19.9 points in those games, above his season average of 16.5.

Looking at their SEC wins, the Tigers have been able to get by while getting beat on the glass. In their three wins, they have been outrebounded by an average of more than five boards a game. They make this gap up through 3-point shooting, where they hit more than three more than their opponents in the wins. Three-point shooting is one of the few places where LSU is above average in the SEC. It has taken the fourth most 3-pointers in conference play. If it gets hot in the SEC tournament, LSU can make a run.

Matchup With the Gators

When LSU faced off with Florida in the regular season, it was no match for the Gators interior play. Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh combined for 35 points as the Gators won 79-65 in Baton Rouge. The Gators had this success inside with All-SEC third-teamer Alex Condon, who was out due to injury. The gap in interior play should only grow larger. The Gators won the rebound battle 48-33, and picked up the double-digit win despite no points from Will Richard and only shooting 31% from 3. Their perimeter defense was also on point, as they held Carter to just 7 points on 3-13 shooting. Should these team matchup again, the Gators will need to reemphasize getting the ball inside and not let the Tigers get comfortable from deep.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Tournament Outlook

All-SEC second team selection Josh Hubbard leads the Bulldogs and their sixth-ranked offense in the SEC. He scored 18.8 points per game in SEC play and is also second on the team in assists. Mississippi State lost four of its last five games to end the regular season, but you cannot pin that on Hubbard. He averaged 20.6 points in that stretch and is peaking just in time for the SEC Tournament. Defense has been the undoing of the Bulldogs, as they have given up at least 87 points in nine of their losses. Part of this poor defense could be due to luck, as the Bulldogs rank second and third in the SEC in steals and blocks, respectively, but second to last in opponent 3-point percentage. If this comes back to even league average, the Bulldogs could be a dangerous team.

Matchup With the Gators

Denzel Aberdeen was the star of the regular-season game between the Bulldogs and Gators in Starkville, where he went for 20 points and was in the starting lineup for injured Alijah Martin. The Gators won the game 81-68, and that was without Martin and only getting one minute out of Alex Condon before he went down with an injury. Without Condon, the Gators were dismantled on the glass, getting outrebounded 43-32. If the rematch is to happen, you can expect coach Todd Golden to be preaching rebounding. One other note from the last matchup, former Gator Riley Kugel was held to just 7 points and shot 1-4 from 3-point land.

No. 21 Missouri Tigers Tournament Outlook

It is hard to come into the SEC Tournament with less momentum than Missouri does. Losers of its last three, and four of its last five, the Tigers will look to steady themselves with an SEC Tournament run before the NCAA Tournament begins. The key to that will be their offense. Playing without a traditional center in their starting lineup, the Tigers space the floor and score in bunches. They are fourth in the SEC in scoring and third in 3-point percentage. This comes mainly from their two SEC award winners, Mark Mitchell and Caleb Grill. Mitchell was named to the All-SEC third team and leads the Tigers in scoring. It is his interior presence, as he shoots more than 50% from the field and gets to the free-throw line 6.6 times a game. For Grill, the SEC Sixth-Man of the Year, it is from the perimeter, where he shoots 42% from 3 on almost seven attempts per game.

The Tigers will need their whole starting lineup to crash the boards to find success in the SEC Tournament. They plugged Josh Gray into the starting lineup against Kentucky, moving Trent Pierce to the bench. While they lost the game, they did finish with 14 offensive rebounds. If this change is permanent, it can help the Tigers be more competitive on the glass.

Matchup With the Gators

The Tigers handed the Gators their first and only home loss when these teams played in the regular season. The game was marred by controversy, as replay showed a late Caleb Grill 3 should have been called a two, and the Tigers only won by one point, 83-82. There should be many adjustments the Gators should make if they get another shot at the Tigers. First is to run them off the 3-point line. The Tigers shot 11 of 29 from 3, including Grill hitting 6 of 10. Forcing Grill to attack the basket or become a playmaker will take Missouri out of its ideal play style. The Tigers also had the upper hand on the glass. They pulled in more offensive rebounds than the Gators and got 12 second-chance points. Giving good shooters more opportunities to shoot is not a recipe for success. The third issue for the Gators was turnovers. Turning the ball over 13 times and giving up 18 points off those turnovers was the nail in the coffin for the Gators.

It was not all bleak for Florida, as the Missouri defense has no answer for Walter Clayton Jr, who was just named to the All-SEC first team. He went for 28 points in the regular-season matchup. Scoring from the starting lineup was not a problem, but the Gators will need to gets their bench involved if the rematch happens. The three Gators off the bench were held to a combined 9 points. This was before both Thomas Haugh and Denzel Aberdeen took their leaps forward in the middle of SEC play. The Tigers are the most likely matchup for the Gators as the seven seed in the SEC Tournament.

Upcoming Games (All on the SEC Network)

No. 15 LSU vs. No. 10 Mississippi State, Wednesday, 7 p.m.

TBD vs. No. 7 Missouri, Thursday, 7 p.m.

TDB vs. No. 2 Florida, Friday, 7 p.m. (103.7-FM).