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It’s been a Tuesday tradition for the past few weeks — the College Football Playoff rankings. The penultimate edition came Tuesday, just days before conference championship games kick off and the field becomes crystal clear.
Let’s get into which teams rose, which dropped and which were in the eye of controversy.
No Surprise At Top
Leading the charge in the committee’s new rankings is the team that’s been at the top the entire time — the Oregon Ducks. At a perfect 12-0, the Ducks are the only undefeated team ranked and look to cement their No. 1 spot with a win Saturday against Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Led by fiery coach Dan Lanning, this team doesn’t look like one that’ll let off the gas.
Oregon and Dan Lanning smashed a UW helmet at halftime 👀
(Via @oregonfootball) pic.twitter.com/QEPolscgtp
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 3, 2024
Rounding out the top four are the Texas Longhorns, Penn State Nittany Lions and Notre Dame Fighting Irish. If the playoff started today, however, the top four seeds would look different. Oregon and Texas would still be the top two. In the third spot, however, you’d have highest-ranked ACC team SMU. Fourth would be Boise State, the highest ranked Group of Five team.
THE UPDATED CFP BRACKET PROJECTION 🏈 pic.twitter.com/5dB1gqvoD0
— ESPN (@espn) December 4, 2024
Middle Ground
After those four, who seem locked to make the playoff no matter what happens in conference championships, there’s a middle group that seems to be safe as well.
Some big brands lead this group, with the likes of the Georgia Bulldogs and Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State, of course, lost to the Michigan Wolverines over rivalry weekend, which led to its drop from No. 2 to No. 6.
That placement saw some pushback, as it seems Ohio State was punished less for losing than Tennessee was at an earlier point for winning a game against Florida.
– Tennessee beats Florida at home
– Ohio State loses to Michigan at home
– Ohio State ranked ahead of Tennessee & robs us of a playoff game at Neyland pic.twitter.com/uih3OIcMt1
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) December 4, 2024
The Volunteers, then, are at No. 7, followed by SMU, Indiana and Boise State. Of those teams, Tennessee and Indiana should be safe.
Boise State likely needs to win its conference championship game, as a loss would likely drop it from the top 12 and remove from the top-ranked G5 champion automatic playoff bid.
SMU, one would think, would be safe regardless of its result. However, a statement made by CFP Selection Committee Chair Warde Manuel has some questioning that.
Warde Manuel on whether SMU could drop below Alabama with a loss Saturday : "Potentially, yes."
— John Talty (@JTalty) December 4, 2024
Crimson Controversy
Oh, the Crimson Tide. It’s their ranking, at No. 11, that stirred up the most discourse in the hours after the release. Specifically, it’s the fact they were placed above the Miami Hurricanes. With a 9-3 record, it doesn’t seem like this Alabama team is one that should be ranked. If you ask Manuel, however, he’ll bring up a few stats.
"Alabama is 3-1 against current top-25 teams and Miami is 0-1. Alabama is 6-1 against teams above .500 and Miami is 4-2."
CFP Selection Committee Chair Warde Manuel on why Alabama is ranked above Miami in the latest CFP rankings. pic.twitter.com/0gWteS5nA8
— ESPN (@espn) December 4, 2024
Well, those unhappy with the ranking countered with stats of their own, displaying a wider margin of loss to worse teams for Alabama than for Miami.
Getting blown out by a 6-6 Oklahoma team with the 94th ranked offense wasn’t a dealbreaker for Alabama, but Miami losing by 4 points to 9-3 Syracuse did them in.
Absolutely absurd special treatment. pic.twitter.com/04hULZgez0
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) December 4, 2024
Now, it seems like the only way Alabama doesn’t make the playoff is if Clemson swings the upset against SMU in the ACC Championship Game, ensuring a spot for Clemson and, if SMU still makes it, pushes the Tide out.
The final team that it’s in playoff spot, sitting a few spots outside the top 12, is No. 15-ranked Arizona State. As the highest-ranked Big 12 team, it would get the fifth conference champion spot. First, though, it needs to actually win the game against Iowa State, which would take it spot if it were to leave with a win.
There are other teams, of course, that were part of the controversy. Some were arguing for South Carolina, others Ole Miss. Many had a problem with BYU being ranked at No. 18 when it is 10-2 with a win over SMU. When dug into deep enough, nitpicking is possible down the line.
As always, the CFP rankings breed disagreement and discourse, and the final edition Sunday will likely do the same. However, it will be the decider, and whichever teams the committee thinks are deserving of making the playoff will get to prove (or not) that worth on the field.
