NFL Week 11 Prime-Time Picks

A division rivalry, a star quarterback matchup and a battle for the state of Texas. That’s what we’ve got on the Week 11 NFL prime-time slate. I couldn’t be more excited.

We’re getting deeper into the season, so these games matter much more, both for playoff implications and pushing narratives.

For those unfamiliar, I’ll make picks against the spread for this week’s prime-time games.

Recap

Last week, when there were four prime-time games, I went 2-2. Detroit versus Houston was a rough beat, as I picked Detroit -3.5 and it only won by three. Oh well, I’ll get back on winning pace this week.

Thursday Night Football – Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

The Washington Commanders have been one of football’s biggest surprises this year. Led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, they’re entering this game at a 7-3 record.

Daniels has been having a special season. He’s seventh in league MVP odds, an incredible accomplishment for a rookie.

Their last game didn’t go as they’d have hoped though – Washington fell to the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-27 thanks to some unbelievable catches by receiver George Pickens.

What Washington can hang its hat on is how well Daniels has played in road games this year.

https://x.com/granthpaulsen/status/1856707335604912405

That’s an incredibly impressive stat considering how many great quarterbacks have come through the league.

Philadelphia is coming off a 34-6 annihilation of the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles are 7-2 and have played really well recently.

Some of their biggest contributions have come from rookies, especially cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. Look at what he’s been able to do.

https://x.com/BrendenDeeg_/status/1855773623287414854

Now that I’m looking at it, this might just be the matchup of incredible rookies.

Nevertheless, I’m rolling with Washington to cover in this one. I think the Eagles have a fatal flaw, and his name is Nick Sirianni. Yeah, their coach will be their eventual undoing and that’ll come up in this game.

Verdict: Washington +3.5

Sunday Night Football – Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert. That’s it. What more do I need to say to sell you on this game.

You could argue both of these guys are having their best individual seasons. For Burrow, the personal statistics back it up. He’s got 2,672 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions.

In fact, the entire offense has been outstanding. Look at all the stats they have team leaders in.

https://x.com/CincyProblems/status/1856386906243666238

Unfortunately for them, their defense has been porous to say the least. They’re allowing 26.2 points per game, No. 26 in the league. The Ravens just scored 35 on them, which resulted in a loss even though Burrow threw four touchdowns and the offense scored 34.

For Herbert and the Chargers, it’s been a good first year with Jim Harbaugh as coach.

The team is 6-3, and Herbert, who’s always been a phenomenal talent, has elevated his game. He’s hurting teams not just with his arm, but with his legs as well.

https://x.com/minakimes/status/1856423696946102368

That’s a dangerous weapon.

Still, I like the Bengals in this one. I know that, at 4-6, they’re not winning like they want to, but I’m sorry, I just can’t quit them. What can I say – Burrow is hard to bet against. Besides, if they lose by one point like last week, they’d still cover!

Verdict: Cincinnati +1.5

Monday Night Football – Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. The Cowboys are a mess.

Dak Prescott is out for the season. Jerry Jones keeps putting his foot in his mouth. Micah Parsons threw his coach under the bus and then defended himself on his podcast.

https://x.com/Brandoniswrite/status/1856110252711632926

New rule. If you’re a young athlete with a podcast – DON’T TALK ABOUT THE SPORT YOU PLAY. Seriously Micah. Talk about basketball. Swimming. Golf. Anything but the NFL.

Houston hasn’t been too hot either, but for on-field reasons. It’s coming off a heartbreaker to Detroit, where it blew a 23-7 lead.

Nico Collins’ potential return would be huge, though, and could set them back on track.

Even if he doesn’t come back the Cowboys simply aren’t a threat with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Rush, against the Eagles last week, was, to put it lightly, terrible.

https://x.com/The33rdTeamFB/status/1855747177257259256

He finished the game with 45 passing yards. Oh my.

Yeah, give me the Texans.

Verdict: Houston -7.5

Odds and information are based on date of writing, Wednesday 11/13