NFL Week 9 Prime-Time Picks

Man – Week 8 was an eventful one. It seems like everything happened, with a lot of it having implications for this week’s prime-time games.

For those not in the know, the concept is simple. I’ll make picks against the spread for the three prime-time games in the NFL this week.

Week 8 was a good one for me. I went 2-1 on my picks, hitting on the Cowboys-49ers game and the Steelers-Giants game, but whiffing on the Vikings-Rams game.

As always, 3-0 is the goal, and I’m going to do my best to make sure I hit it with the Week 9 slate of prime-time games.

Thursday Night Football – Houston Texans @ New York Jets (-1.5)

HUH??? The Jets are … favored in this game? That’s the reaction I had and I’m sure the one you had.

Guys. This is a Jets team that just last week LOST TO THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. A Patriots team that, at the time, was 1-6. A Patriots team that, during the game, lost its rookie quarterback to a concussion and had to then insert the quarterback it benched in favor of the rookie.

Come on. Now, I know, Stefon Diggs is out for the year with a torn ACL. That’s one of the developments from Week 8 that I mentioned.

Texans WR Stefon Diggs out for rest of season with torn ACL. pic.twitter.com/4iV11cRLQP

— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2024

They’re also missing receiver Nico Collins, who’s been on IR since Week 5 with a hamstring injury.

With all that said, Houston is still not the disaster that is the 2024 New York Jets and it still has C.J. Stroud at quarterback and Demeco Ryans as its coach. Those two are enough to feel confident in Houston to cover the spread and win outright.

Verdict: Houston +2

Sunday Night Football – Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Another game with Week 8 fallout. After a sub-par performance against the Houston Texans, Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has found himself on the bench, replaced by Joe Flacco. Well, there was also the whole “tired” fiasco.

#Colts QB Anthony Richardson on taking himself out of the game in the 3rd quarter: “Tired, I ain’t gonna lie. That was a lot of running right there that I did … So, I just told Shane (Steichen) I needed a break right there.”

( @WISHNews8)pic.twitter.com/5DiUalDXDU

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 27, 2024

Just … not a good look for a starting quarterback. Now, I disagree with the decision to bench Richardson as I don’t think it makes sense with his development timeline. It’s the reality, however, and in the short term Flacco probably gives them a better chance at winning.

Minnesota, on the other hand, has suffered back-to-back losses after the 5-0 start and need to get back to winning ways to not get swallowed by the behemoth that is the NFC North.

After losing tackle Christian Darrisaw for the season, the Vikings pulled the trigger on a trade for Cam Robinson from the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The #Vikings have agreed to terms on a trade with the Jaguars to acquire T Cam Robinson.

The completion of the trade is pending Robinson passing a physical.

: https://t.co/IdeBhv6jMn pic.twitter.com/e3u4VarUks

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 30, 2024

While he might not be the caliber of player Darrisaw is, I like the aggressiveness by Minnesota to not wait around and see what happens.

The Viking defense is still great and I expect the offense to recapture some of the early magic.

Verdict: Minnesota -5.5

Monday Night Football – Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

I’m going to keep this one short. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are without receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin due to injury. Godwin won’t return this year. Evans will, but not for this game.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield, likely pressing, has been turning the ball over at an increased rate as well, which doesn’t help them.

On the Kansas City side, there have been a lot of complaints from the public about how the Chiefs look. People can’t understand how a team that looks so bland is 7-0. The truth is this is a team led by the defense. What it also has, though, is a sneakily efficient offense.

The much-maligned Chiefs offense is No. 4 in the rate of earning new 1st downs on a series pic.twitter.com/45ysxLJdoV

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 29, 2024

But … Kansas City never blows anyone out. All its games are relatively close. For that reason, I’m actually going to roll with Tampa Bay to cover the spread here. Kansas City will win the game, though, and it will never really be in trouble.

Verdict: Tampa Bay +9

Odds and information are based on date of writing Wednesday