New Orleans Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler (18) scrambles out of the pocket against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half at Caesars Superdome last Sunday. [Stephen Lew-Imagn Images]

NFL Week 7 Prime-time Picks

Eitan Ohana October 17, 2024 Football, Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL, Sports Betting, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 129 Views

We’ve got yet another week with five prime-time games, which means there’s extra decisions for me to make. On one hand, it’s fine. I’ll deal with it, because we get more football. On the other hand … not the greatest slate of all time.

As they say, though, football is football! Teams are headed to London, Monday night is doubled-up, so I’m not going to sit here and complain.

Anyway, enough waiting. Let’s get right into it.

Thursday Night Football – Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints (+2.5)

OK. I don’t expect this one to be a classic. In fact, I think the standout unit from this game will be the Broncos defense, which has played high-level football for most of the season. In fact, it has been the reason it’s at a .500 record.

 

Twice this season (there’s only been six games!!!), the defense has held opponents to under 10 points. That includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who haven’t scored less than 20 in any of their other games, and the New York Jets (who haven’t been good offensively, but they looked particularly bad that day).

In another game, they held the Pittsburgh Steelers to 13 but lost because their offense could only put up 6.

The unit won’t be without a challenge, as they’ll be missing a star for the game.

 

Point is, though, this defense is still good, and I expect them to continue that level of play against the Saints. Now, New Orleans does have the x-factor of rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, who’ll likely be making his second start due to Derek Carr’s oblique injury. In his first start against Tampa Bay last week, he was up-and-down (as expected) with 22-of-40 completed passes for 243 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

I don’t think it’ll be Rattler’s finest moment this week, so I like the Broncos to win and by more than 2.5.

Verdict: Denver -2.5

Sunday Morning Football (London Game) – New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5)

I can’t imagine it’s been a jolly week in London for the Jacksonville Jaguars. For any who’ve forgotten, the team played there last week against the Chicago Bears and … proceeded to get smacked around.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw for 234 yards, two touchdowns and one interception, which doesn’t seem terrible, but resulted in a 35-16 loss. In Lawrence’s defense, however, his receivers were not doing him any favors with all the dropped touchdowns. Take a look at some of these from the game.

 

Gotta catch those.

Coach Doug Pederson seems to be on the hot seat, or at the least should be, and another bad performance may be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

On the other side, the New England Patriots had a glimmer of hope last week in rookie quarterback Drake Maye. It was a lot of everything for the young signal caller in the 41-21 loss to the Houston Texans, as he completed 20 of his 33 passes for 243 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.

The upside and talent were on display, though. Just look at this throw to Kayshon Boutte, the first touchdown pass of Maye’s career.

 

I think Jacksonville wins the game. I don’t think the Jags cover the 5.5 point spread, however, as Maye will do enough to keep it close, 26-23.

Verdict: New England +5.5

Sunday Night Football – New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers will not see the same Jets team that the Buffalo Bills saw Monday night. What changed? New York traded for receiver Davante Adams.

 

It’s hard to argue that a player like Adams doesn’t make any team better – he does. I don’t think he addresses the real issues of this team, however, and that’s why I still don’t believe in New York.

What’s been the root of the issue in New York’s 2-4 start? Well, the offensive line hasn’t played well, and neither has their quarterback. The coaching seems lost at times and penalties are committed every other play. I don’t expect all that to get fixed with the addition of one player.

For Pittsburgh, it’s been all about the defense. Their quarterback situation has been in the news recently, however, as Russell Wilson might take the starting job from Justin Fields.

 

If Wilson ends up being the starter, I might be out on this pick. As of right now, though, I like the Steelers to win outright.

Verdict: Pittsburgh +1.5

Monday Night Football – Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)

This is the prime-time game of the week. Baltimore’s offense, starting with Lamar Jackson, has been incredible since the 0-2 start. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs aren’t that different, as the quarterback leads the league in touchdown passes with 15.

In fact, I expect this to be an offensive shootout. Tampa Bay is coming off scoring 51 points against New Orleans. Baltimore just scored 30 in a win against the (surprisingly good!) Washington Commanders.

I think Baltimore will outrun Tampa Bay and cover the 3.5 point spread. When I say outrun, I mean it literally. They’re going to have Jackson take the snap, turn around and hand it off to the AFC Offensive Player of the Week in Derrick Henry.

 

The Bucs will hold their own, though, and continue to prove themselves as a real team this season.

Verdict: Baltimore -3.5

Monday Night Football – Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)

It’s been an interesting season for the Los Angeles Chargers in their first year with Jim Harbaugh as head coach.

The past few years, the fate of the team rested on the arm of quarterback Justin Herbert – this year, he’s only passed for more than 200 yards in one game (last week against Denver). This team was molded in the image of Harbaugh. A tough offensive line and a run game is what the coach wants, and that’s what they set out to do in the offseason.

Instead of drafting a receiver in the first round, they went with tackle Joe Alt. In the games so far, they’ve fed running back J.K. Dobbins. After two down games, he had 96 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos.

If they could combine the two, like they did in this drive against Denver, it could be magic.

 

For the Cardinals, the occasional bright spot has been the offense. I say occasional because they’ve come and gone. The 41 points against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, but 13 last week against the Green Bay Packers. What’s certain is that it’s always fun to watch Kyler Murray run around and try to make magic happen.

 

Unfortunately for them, their defense is No. 27 in the league, allowing 373.3 yards per game. Not a recipe for success, and I think it’ll be their undoing in this one.

Verdict: Chargers -2.5

Odds and information are based on date of writing, Wednesday 10/16

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