Sep 23, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) rolls out against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at Highmark Stadium. (Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images)

NFL Week 4 Primetime Picks – Who Covers Spread?

Eitan Ohana September 27, 2024 Football, Miami Dolphins, NFL, Sports Betting 13 Views

Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season is here, and it’s time to make some primetime picks. For those unfamiliar, I’ll be picking a team based on the spread in the three (Thursday Night Football not included) primetime games.

Sunday Night Football – Buffalo Bills (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

The Buffalo Bills are riding high. Hand up – I picked the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover the 5.5 point spread against them on Monday night. I was clearly wrong, seeing as the Bills won 47-10. Not great.

I’ll get it out of the way quick. I’m not making the same mistake this week. I like the Bills +3 in this spot, mainly because I believe in what they are this year.

Josh Allen, coming off a four-touchdown first half against Jacksonville, might be playing the best football of his career. He’s completing 75% of his passes as well, a sign of incredibly efficient play. The Bills, on Allen’s shoulders, lead the league in scoring this year (112 points).

For Baltimore, Week 3 marked an inflection point in their season. After starting the season 0-2, they headed to Dallas for a meeting with the Cowboys. Entering the fourth quarter, it seemed like it would be smooth sailing for Baltimore, who led 28-6. Then, Dallas started a furious comeback, and it looked like the Ravens might be the surprise disaster of the season.

All ended up fine, however, as the Ravens held on for the win. Overall, though, I don’t like what I’ve seen from Baltimore thus far and do think they’re still in for a subpar season.

Not only will Buffalo cover the three points, but they’ll win outright.

Verdict: Buffalo +2.5

Monday Night Football (Game 1) – Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

This will be one of the ugliest games you’ll see this year. A Tennessee Titans team, quarterbacked by self-thought superhuman Will Levis, up against a Miami Dolphins team that could be sending out its fourth string quarterback. Historically, not a recipe for an exciting one.

Nevertheless, the game will be taking place, so I’ve got to pick a winner here.

Now, we still don’t know who the Dolphins will play at quarterback. Backup Skylar Thompson is day-to-day with a rib injury sustained in last week’s Seattle Seahawks game. That makes the likely starter either Tim Boyle or new addition Tyler Huntley. Head coach Mike McDaniel says he wants to see how the battle plays out in practice.

If Boyle is the starter, I would take the Titans in this spot. However, I’m going to make my prediction with the assumption that it’ll be Huntley, so I like the Dolphins to shock the world (no shocking will be happening in this one) and cover the 1.5 point spread.

Sorry Tennessee, I just can’t bring myself to bet on Mr. Levis.

Verdict: Miami -1.5

Monday Night Football (Game 2) – Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Seattle’s looked really good through three weeks of the season – a win, win and another win. Quarterback Geno Smith’s had an impressive start. It hasn’t shown up in the box score, but is clear with the eye-test and analytically.

When you look at it a bit closer, however, the start doesn’t look as impressive. Week 1 was a 26-20 win over the Denver Broncos (with rookie quarterback Bo Nix in his first career start). In Week 2 they beat the New England Patriots in overtime, who we all saw get run over on primetime the following week by the New York Jets, 23-20. Then, in Week 3, they beat the Dolphins with Skylar Thompson at quarterback (perhaps the opposite of “Mission: Impossible”).

Point is, this will be their first real challenge this season, and I like the Lions to come out victorious. At 2-1, the Lions haven’t quite looked like the team we saw make the NFC Championship Game last year, and I think that changes this week. I also love the jerseys they’ll be wearing (don’t tell me it doesn’t matter).

Give me Detroit to win by 7, 28-21, and covering the spread.

Verdict: Detroit -3.5

Odds are based on date of writing, Thursday 9/26

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