NFL Week 3 Primetime Picks – Who Covers Spread?

We’re headed into Week 3 of the NFL season, and, while we still don’t know who’s good and who’s not, things are starting to take shape.

With what we’ve seen from the past two weeks, it’s time to make primetime picks, where I’ll pick a team based on the spread in the week’s four(!) primetime games.

Thursday Night Football – New England Patriots @ New York Jets (-6.5)

For the second straight week, there’s an AFC East matchup on TNF. This time, it’s two teams with different stories.

The Patriots, a team that coming into the season, had the lowest projected win total at 4.5, could be classified as a surprise thus far. In Week 1, the Pats had the Cincinnati Bengals in Cincinnati, which most chalked up to be a loss for New England. Then, they won.

“But the Bengals never start well!”

True, they don’t. So, how about Week 2, when they fought a 2-0 Seattle Seahawks team all the way to overtime, where they fell short. Point is, this team, led by first-year coach Jerod Mayo and veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett, might be better than we expected.

https://x.com/Patriots/status/1832872290058690817

The Jets, on the other hand – a team I haven’t believed in from the start and hasn’t given me any reason to feel differently. They got destroyed by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, then barely managed to defeat the Tennessee Titans and their cartoon-esque-mistake prone quarterback Will Levis.

https://x.com/BleacherReport/status/1835375499012448542

Oh, and Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in 24 games. Not great.

Verdict: Patriots to cover +6.5

Sunday Night Football – Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons

Shoutout to the Atlanta Falcons, who got a big win on Monday Night Football in Week 2 over the Philadelphia Eagles. That game should’ve been a momentum builder. It still might be.

https://x.com/AtlantaFalcons/status/1836496265703502211

Unfortunately for them, next up are the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Look – I’m not going to pretend like the Chiefs have run through their two opponents (Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals) the first two weeks. But they just figure out ways to win. Patrick Mahomes can play as poorly as he did last week, when he threw for only 151 yards and two interceptions, and still find a way to win.

Again, I think Atlanta can be good – it just won’t materialize this week.

Verdict: Chiefs to cover -3.5

Monday Night Football (Game 1) – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

This was the toughest game for me to pick. Based on what we’ve seen through two weeks, the Bills should cover here. They looked dominant in their 31-10 Week 2 TNF win over the Miami Dolphins. Josh Allen doesn’t have to do everything for the team now and has been helped out by the likes of running back James Cook.

https://x.com/BuffaloBills/status/1836435133999591873

Why was this so tough then? Call it a feeling. I’m not even sure what the feeling is. Jacksonville has been one of the league’s most disappointing teams, and it doesn’t look like it really knows what it’s doing. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence still hasn’t taken the leap many, including me, expected. They feel … lost. And yet.

Verdict: Jaguars to cover +5.5

Monday Night Football (Game 2) – Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

I’ll keep it short here – I like the Bengals. Can I explain their collapse in Week 1 against the Patriots? No, not at all. Last week, though, they rose and played a tremendous game against the Chiefs. In fact, they outplayed the Chiefs. It just so happened that they lost the game. It happens.

I like the Bengals long term this season, and I think that starts against a Washington team I don’t think is all that good. That’s not meant to be disrespectful to the Commanders, I just think they need time to grow and develop. As of right now, I’m going to put my trust in quarterback Joe Burrow over Washington rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.

https://x.com/CincyProblems/status/1836458333949092240

Verdict: Bengals to cover -7.5