Oregon quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Utah Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

Week 10 College Football Playoff Breakdown

Nick VanZandt November 1, 2023 ACC, Big 10, Big 12, College Football, Football, NCAA, PAC 12, SEC 154 Views

With the 2023 college football season already halfway through, 10 teams realistically have a shot at making the College Football Playoff. 

Two SEC, Big 12 and PAC-12 teams still have a chance at the CFP. Three Big Ten teams and one lone ACC team will try to make the mark in the CFP as well. 

SEC and College Football Playoff

No surprise, that Georgia and Alabama have the best shot at making the CFP in the SEC. Meanwhile, Missouri and Ole Miss have a slim margin at shocking the world. Missouri has to beat Georgia on the road and win out while Ole Miss has to win out and rely on Alabama to lose two SEC games for a chance at the CFP.

For Georgia, the road is simple, win out and you are in. Georgia still has Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee in their schedule. While the Bulldogs will be favored in all three, it is not easy sledding. It would take two losses to knock Georgia out of contention. Georgia can still make it to the CFP if they lose in the SEC title game as well, but crazier things have happened.

For Alabama, the Week 2 loss to Texas did not help the Crimson Tide. If Alabama wins out and are SEC Champions, they are in. The problem is that they travel to Auburn, who has historically had their number, and Georgia, the reigning back-to-back national champions.

One more loss will knock Alabama out of the CFP, but never count out a Nick Saben-led team. 

Big 12 and College Football Playoff

In their farewell season in the conference, both Texas and Oklahoma have a shot at the CFP. 

Texas had the best chance of making the playoffs for the Big 12 after defeating Alabama in Week 2. But their loss to the Oklahoma Sooners is the reason why the Longhorns are a team looking on the outside. 

Texas needs to rely on other teams in contention to lose. If the winners of the other four major conferences are undefeated, both the Sooners and Longhorns are out of luck. 

Oklahoma’s chances dropped dramatically after being upset last Saturday against Kansas. Oklahoma has the same fate as Texas, both will need to win their remaining games. If both win their remaining four games, Texas and Oklahoma will meet in Dallas. 

The winner of the Big 12, will not only be crowned champion but will also add a win against a likely top-10 team. 

PAC-12 

Washington and Oregon are on a crash course to the PAC-12 championship and both have higher aspirations. 

The Washington Huskies remain undefeated and need to beat the team in front of them each week and they are in. 

The Huskies face three straight ranked opponents – two of which are on the road. Washington can still drop one game and make it to the CFP. But the Huskies are on pace to have their best season since 1991 and are currently in a good position in the CFP. 

Oregon boosted their chances after beating Utah last Saturday, but their shootout loss against the Huskies still looms over their head.

The Ducks aren’t out yet and if there was a one-loss team to make it to the CFP, it’s Oregon.

Oregon has two of the four remaining games for the Ducks against currently-ranked teams. But unlike the Huskies, Oregon has both of their ranked opponents at home.

The possibility of both Washington and Oregon playing in the CFP is still possible. If both teams end the year 11-1 with their lone loss against each other, the CFP committee may choose to have both the Ducks and Huskies in their four-team playoff.

ACC

Each week every team other than Florida State is imploding in the ACC. UNC lost back-to-back weeks against inferior opponents. Miami lost to Georgia Tech in a dramatic finish. Clemson has lost four games already.

Florida State does not need to do much, they do not play any ranked opponents in their remaining games and should cruise into the ACC Championship. But if the Seminoles miraculously drop a game, their chances drop drastically and they will likely miss out on the CFP.

The CFP committee would choose the winner of the remaining Power 5 conferences over a one-loss FSU. 

The winner of the SEC and Big Ten are destined to be in the CFP. Then you have to look at the remaining three major conferences, you have a one-loss winner of the Big 12, PAC-12 and then FSU. 

Right now, Washington and Oregon have a better resume than FSU. It will come down between FSU and Texas/Oklahoma. If both Oklahoma and Texas make it to the Big-12 Championship, as stated earlier, the winner will have two wins over a top-10 team this season. So if Florida State loses, the odds will be against the Seminoles. 

But all FSU has to do is win out and the discussion of “If they lose” will be irrelevant. 

Big Ten 

Three of the five major conferences went away with divisions. In 2023, the conferences that needed to remove divisions the most did not. There are three current top-10 teams in the Big Ten East. Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State all have realistic aspirations at the CFP.

Two games are yet to be played that can shake the college football landscape. Michigan has yet to travel to Penn State and Ohio State has yet to play Michigan in Ann Arbor. 

In all likelihood, only Michigan and Ohio State have a great chance at the CFP, the winner of their game on Nov 25, will end up in the CFP. But there is still a chance both will make it to the four-team playoff. 

If Michigan wins the Big Ten and everyone else in contention for the CFP fizzles out, Ohio State is a prime contender with just one loss. 

Ohio State already has two wins against top-ten teams and can take a loss against the Wolverines and still be fine. 

Michigan desperately needs to beat Ohio State. Michigan has not played anyone notable and has steamrolled teams leading up to their meeting against the Nittany Lions in a few weeks. If Michigan loses one of its two games against Penn State and Ohio State, the only team in contention with a worse resume is Penn State. Michigan still controls its destiny in the CFP and can challenge Georgia for the top spot if the Wolverines win their remaining games. 

Wild Card

It is not looking good for Penn State. After their offense looked abysmal against Ohio State, the Nittany Lions scrapped a win against Indiana. While on their bye this week, Penn State has its hands full with Michigan on Nov 11. 

One more loss will end their chances at the CFP and even if they do win, Penn State will need Michigan to beat Ohio State for the three-way tie in the Big Ten East. 

https://twitter.com/PennStateFball/status/1718358525225623608

Luckily for Penn State, they hold the tie-breaker against both the Buckeyes and Wolverines. Penn State has played their hardest Big Ten West schedule so far, and if their opponents keep winning, Penn State will be in Indianapolis. 

For Penn State to make the CFP, they need to win out, hope Michigan beats Ohio State and then win the Big Ten Championship. If all things go accordingly, it will be tough for the CFP committee to not put in the one-loss Big Ten Champion. 

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About Nick VanZandt

Nick VanZandt is a senior journalism student at the University of Florida and this is his third semester working for WRUF.

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