Analysis of Week 11 College Football Playoff Rankings

For the first time since 1985, the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 ranked teams were all upset this past Saturday. The Week 11 College Football Playoff Committee Rankings are in, and many fans expected a shakeup due to the unexpected losses. Instead, Clemson and Michigan remained in the top four – with Michigan’s loss not even warranting a change in their ranking.

How We Got Here

Following consecutive 62-3 beatdowns over Nebraska and Maryland, Ohio State sits second behind Alabama – the unanimous college football powerhouse at 10-0. Ohio State and Michigan still have to play one another in their final regular season game. The matchup will most likely determine the Big Ten’s Eastern Division champion while securing a playoff berth for one team.

We may see a playoff rematch of last year’s championship, as Clemson controls their own destiny in the No. 4 spot. The Tigers only need to win out over Wake Forest and South Carolina, because they hold the tiebreaker advantage against Louisville.

The PAC-12 is represented well in the playoff rankings, with six conference teams finding themselves in the top 25.  After losing to red-hot USC, Washington dropped to the CFP’s sixth spot, but could still sneak into the top four if they win their final two conference games. However, based on current rankings and strength of schedule, it’s entirely possible that a Big Ten champion other than Ohio State could join the Buckeyes in the top four. This would inevitably knock Washington’s chances for a loop.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin settles into the No. 7 spot, but it’s doubtful they can secure a playoff berth. The Badgers look to need meltdowns from both Michigan and Ohio State.

Where We’re Headed

So what does all of this mean? Well, Alabama is almost a lock for the top four, unless they find a way to lose the Iron Bowl and the SEC Championship game. The SEC East looks considerably weaker than the West, however. Therefore, Bama’s chances of losing out on the playoffs are slim to none.

The other three spots aren’t exactly up for grabs, but some teams have more difficult paths than others. If Michigan is unable to beat Ohio State, it will be interesting to see which team the Playoff Committee determines to be deserving of the fourth spot.

According to Alabama head coach Nick Saban, making the playoffs with two losses is “almost impossible”.

Meanwhile, the Committee still has time to formulate accurate rankings, but fans may be wondering why Ohio State and Michigan, two Big Ten teams with unranked losses, are in the top four ahead of Washington. The Huskies also have one loss, but that came against a top-25 opponent in USC.

The rankings will undoubtedly change, but a bias towards certain conferences is certainly something to be aware of.