CFB Playoff Bracket: Future of Conference Championships In Jeopardy?

Just three months ago, college football fans rejoiced over the 12-team playoff expansion with the idea that more spots mean more hope. But as we reach the final couple weeks of the season, fans are still trying to figure out how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will select the 12-team bracket in the new CFP format. With the four-highest Power-Four conference champions receiving a first-round bye (seeds 1-4), the rest of the nation is in a two-week scramble for the eight remaining seeds.

Seems simple on the surface, but in recent weeks, it’s been anything but that. But why?

“I’ll just kind of give you the feeling from some other coaches,” Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin said on Monday. “They don’t want to be in [their conference championship]. You know, the reward to get a bye versus the risk to get knocked out completely … that’s a really big risk.”

An interesting quote from a coach looking to take on a red-hot conference opponent this weekend.

Lane Kiffin revealed some coaches don't want to play in SEC Championship due to College Football Playoff:

“I’ve talked to other coaches… The reward to get a bye [in the CFP] versus the risk to get knocked out completely… that’s a really big risk.”https://t.co/BJFxiGNDgq pic.twitter.com/MAYRUM6gna

— On3 (@On3sports) November 18, 2024

SEC Scramble

It’s worth noting that no team officially earns a bye until it wins its conference championship, and these predictions are solely based off the committee’s rankings. The selection committee is comprised of 13 individual members tasked with creating a weekly Top 25 CFB playoff rankings. On Tuesday, the committee released its third official rankings and ESPN’s Rece Davis spoke with the chair of the CFB selection committee, Warde Manuel, on what they take most into consideration. Here is what Manuel had to say:

"We watch the games & we see how teams are playing each week… we access their entire body of work."

Hear now from Warde Manuel, chair of the College Football Playoff selection committee, as he chatted with @ESPN's @ReceDavis after the reveal of the CFP Top 25.#CFBPlayoff 🏈🏆 pic.twitter.com/NIfT9qXFeG

— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 20, 2024

As it sits for the SEC, the 9-1 Texas Longhorns sit alone at the top. With Texas A&M, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss all tied for second at 8-2, each of those six teams are also firmly in the CFP race. But a bad loss in the SEC championship game could potentially leave a team out of the bracket.

A Bye for a Bye

Kiffin offers a fair point when he said, “And it’s not just, do you potentially get knocked out by losing that? Do you (have) more injuries? So, you’re going to go get more injuries, play another game to get a bye, but then the other people are having their bye while you’re playing.”

But in the example of a team like 8-2 (6-2 SEC) Georgia, missing out on the SEC championship while getting a lesser playoff seed may just be in their best interest.

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart followed up when asked about Kiffin’s comments with, “So, yes, what Lane Kiffin said is correct, you’d rather not go there. But the problem is, you don’t have a choice in the matter. There’s a tiebreaker and you get in based on a number of tiebreakers.”

According to this week’s rankings, zero SEC teams would host a first-round bye. With less than one month until the first round of the playoffs, the sunny Southeastern Conference may just find itself in a winter wonderland this December.

Weather right now at the schools that would currently be hosting the College Football Playoff in one month:

Ohio State: 32 degrees and snowing
Penn State: 35 degrees and raining
Indiana: 32 degrees and snowing
Notre Dame: 31 degrees and snowing pic.twitter.com/vQ81ZDNktF

— Ohio’s Tate (@BarstoolTate) November 21, 2024