NFL Week 10 Prime-Time Picks

What’s that? OH — it’s a four prime-time game week!

That’s right — we’re back. It’s been a few weeks of only three prime-time games (which I suppose is the standard), but we’re sending teams overseas again. This time, it’s the Germany game! Unfortunately for the Germans that’ll fill the stadium, they’re getting what, on paper, looks to be one of the uglier matchups of the season.

Fortunately, all the other standalone games look to be pretty awesome, so it’s not that big of a problem for those of us in the States!

Enough making fun of the NFL’s international scheduling — let’s get into the prime-time picks.

For any unfamiliar, I’ll make picks against the spread for this week’s prime-time games.

Recap

Just for housekeeping, I went 2-1 last week. I was wrong about the Texans — Jets game, but I was spot on with Tampa Bay covering against Kansas City and Minnesota beating Indianapolis comfortably.

Don’t look now, but I’m 4-2 the past two weeks. This week, I’m calling it — 3-0.

Thursday Night Football – Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

What a way to start the week. The last time these two AFC North foes faced each other, it was a Week 5 41-38 overtime classic.

In that game, it was Baltimore which came out on top. Late in the game, down 10 points, Lamar Jackson had to pull out this Houdini act.

It being Bengals week is just another excuse to watch this play 1000 more times. pic.twitter.com/JL6iBmyWLn

— Zach Bollinger (@zachbollinger18) November 6, 2024

Will we see this type of performance again this week? I say yes.

I think we’re going to see high-level quarterback play on both sides, but the guy that’ll shine most is Joe Burrow.

Burrow has been cooking this year. He’s got 2,244 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and only four interceptions, along with a 76.3 QBR. All of those (outside of the interceptions) rank in the top five among quarterbacks this year.

It’ll help him and the Bengals offense that the Ravens defense has been, to put it lightly, bad this year. Just take a look at these stats.

Looking for optimism on this Wednesday morning for the Bengals vs. Ravens?

The Bengals have the 4th best offensive pass EPA/play this season while the Ravens rank 29th in pass D EPA/play.

Baltimore also has struggled to generate a pass rush. They have the 20th best DL pass…

— Gridiron Grading (@GridironGrading) November 6, 2024

Yeah. I think Burrow is going to light them up, and the Bengals will be right back in the thick of the playoff race.

Verdict: Cincinnati +6

Sunday Morning Football – New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers (+6.5)

Zzzzzzz. That’s what I’ll be doing while this game is going on in the early Sunday morning. Seriously, what a snooze fest.

With that being said, it’s my obligation to provide cogent analysis, and that’s what I’ll do.

Carolina is riding high right now — they just picked up their second win of the season last week, beating the New Orleans Saints (which led to a total collapse of the team, including firing coach Dennis Allen). Shoutout Bryce Young.

https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/1853580002769436791

The New York Giants didn’t have too bad of a Sunday either — they only barely lost to the Washington Commanders. It’s the small things that count!

Anyway, this is simple for me. I don’t think the Giants are capable of beating anyone by at least seven points (except for Seattle apparently).

Verdict: Carolina +6.5

Sunday Night Football – Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (+3.5)

Sunday morning won’t be fun, but Sunday night will.

Detroit might just be the hottest team in football right now. They’re blowing teams out. Jared Goff, the past six weeks, has put up historic numbers.

https://x.com/LionsPR/status/1853244081196933245

Who would’ve thought. The quarterback the Los Angeles Rams thought wasn’t good enough is now doing things no one else has been good enough to do.

On the Houston side of things, some problems were clear in the loss to the Jets last week. With both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs out, and the interior of the offensive line operating as a turnstile, C.J. Stroud couldn’t look his best.

Stroud completed only 11 of his 30 pass attempts for 191 yards. Can’t win like that. Fortunately for him, Collins could be making his return this week. There’s still tests to go through to determine his status, but a return would be huge for this team’s chances.

Still, I like Detroit in this spot. It has momentum, and it has the coach in Dan Campbell to make sure it doesn’t let go of it.

Verdict: Detroit -3.5

Monday Night Football – Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams (-1)

Since Tua Tagovailoa’s return from injury, the Dolphins have returned to becoming a viable team. In both games, they’ve scored 27 points and the quarterback has looked really good!

That’s especially true after he avoids sacks. Look at this list.

https://x.com/JoeRobbie_/status/1854202652164534324

Tagovailoa’s game is all about efficiency and he’s been displaying it.

On the other side, you’ve got a Rams team that, since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have returned from injury, has looked like the contender many thought it would be at the start of the season. I know I was one of those people.

What’s really stood out about this team, though, are the contributions they’ve gotten from some of their young defensive players. In fact, it’s been two rookies!

https://x.com/TheLARamsPR/status/1854319111675031935

I think the Rams are just a better team than the Dolphins this year. Miami is a good bad team. They’re watchable, they’re fun, but they’ll fall short in the end. Los Angeles – they’re just a good team.

Verdict: Los Angeles -1

Odds and information are based on date of writingWednesday