Florida’s Current Path to the Big Dance

Florida’s NCAA Tournament hopes took a massive hit Tuesday night as the Gators dropped a potential Quadrant 1 win to Arkansas. Sitting at 17-11 (7-8 SEC) on the season, Florida’s March Madness hopes haven’t completely disappeared yet, but they are certainly foggy.

Currently, the Gators are the No. 9 seed in the SEC Tournament after dropping from No. 7 before Tuesday’s loss.

Furthermore, Florida is ranked as the No. 55 team in the NET rankings. The Gators’ 12-1 record against Quad 3 and 4 teams is not a cause for concern. However, the 5-10 record against Quad 1 and 2 teams has kept the Gators out of reach for a tournament berth so far.

Fortunately for head coach Mike White and his team, there are two scenarios where the Gators go dancing in March.

Florida’s NCAA Tournament path

The “sneak in” method

Looking ahead, Florida plays three more games before the SEC Tournament begins, including a game against a Quad 1 team to conclude the season. A win against Arkansas likely guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament for the Gators. However, the loss on Tuesday night puts the team in a complicated spot. It will likely have to win at least two of the last three regular season games and one-to-two games in the SEC Tournament.

Florida first travels to Quad 3 Georgia on Saturday, Feb. 26. From there, the Gators travel further north to Nashville against Quad 2 Vanderbilt on March 1. Finally, Florida concludes the regular season at home against Quad 1 and top-5 Kentucky on March 5.

In those three games, Florida is put into a must-win situation at least against Kentucky as Florida is only 2-8 in Quad 1 games. Hypothetically, should Florida win two of the three, with one against Kentucky, Florida would finish the season 9-9 in the SEC and would be a middle seed in the SEC Tournament. From there, one win would would possibly sneak the Gators into its fourth tournament appearance in the last five seasons. A win or two in the SEC Tournament will send the Gators dancing.

All of this stands on if the Gators can upset the Wildcats. Should Florida lose at least two out of the final three regular season games, the Gators will have to turn to a scenario made famous by a unlikely champion of the mid-1980s. On paper, it is a simple situation: win and you’re in.

The “NC State” method

Arguably the most unlikely scenario for the Gators to reach the big dance is by winning the SEC Tournament in Tampa. All conference tournament champions receive automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament no matter their regular season performance.

In 1984, Jim Valvano’s NC State team proved this method’s worth by winning the ACC Tournament after defeating heavily-favored North Carolina and Virginia. An automatic bid to the tournament, the Wolfpack made the most of their opportunity as a No. 6 seed knocking off every opponent they faced on their way to the program’s second national title.

As simple as it sounds, Florida’s schedule in the SEC Tournament won’t be easy. Depending on the regular season finish, Florida could be anywhere from the No. 5 seed to the No. 11 seed in the conference tournament. Of course, this depends on the Gators’ finish as well as the rest of the conference’s. However, the opponents won’t change. The Gators will likely have to go through either Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas or Tennessee, who are expected to be the top-4 seeds, at some point. Florida has suffered at least one loss to each of the four teams this season.

The 2022 SEC Tournament runs from March 9 to March 13 at Amalie Arena in Tampa.